This is the kind of post that may not age well, but might instead act as a snapshot of a particular time, post-2016 electoral predictions. (Though at least the model is somewhat testable here.)
I was also spurred into pushing links because Bitecofer et al. appear to be mainstreaming, so actually it sounds like I might just be on some normie stuff here.
- Tuning into Rachel Bitecofer in recent weeks: Negative Partisanship as the key turnout driver.
- In the turnout game, you can hype your own people or try to cause doubt and dissent in the enemy tribe.
- Disincentivizing black voters as a likely key strategy
- Experiments in accomplishing this from 2016
- I had read that it’s more cost-effective to deactivate voters than to activate them. That smells true but I’ve lost my sourcing.
- Bloomberg was a really interesting experiment in the influence of money in politics, and I’m not sure what we learned. It didn’t appear to be a great ROI, but what do I know?